Decision Day

So will the Europeans back the Greeks with their next bailout?  It's fascinating that in the last two or three weeks the "mood music” coming from countries like Norway, the Netherlands and particularly the Germans is becoming very "hawkish” over debating the bailout itself.

The change in mood I think, stems from a realisation that the Greeks are a "basket case”; not throwing good money after bad; not undertaking any of the capital sales that was agreed to raise revenue for the country by selling assets and fundamentally, the whole aspect of trust.  The Greeks are ultimately not doing what they said they would do.

I tweeted a mate over the last 24 hours about the fact that the Germans are beginning to play some "brinkmanship” in the whole negotiation with the Greeks.  Let me explain - in short, I think the Germans maybe coming round to the fact that the return of the Drachma isn't such a bad idea.  The brinkmanship is Mertel playing proper hardball - does the Euro or the Germans need a country with an economy based on tourism and little else.  The future for the Greeks is very bleak - and it really is out of their control now.  But because the economy is so small in comparison to many of the other European economies - if Greece does go then actually, good riddance!

The other comparison I will make is the Irish economy, whose austerity measures kicked in early, and seem to be the guiding them towards the light, slowly but surely rectifying the mistakes. Although very different economies in terms of the mix of sectors, the Irish do seem to be very serious about the choices they've made.

Apparently, Monday is the big day….

I suspect that the Greeks will get the money, but is Germany finally realising that the return of the Drachma may not be such a bad idea - because the Greek economy and outlook is so poor long term should they forget them?

The Greeks need the bailout massively, and currently are sweating on a decision that could see the return of the Drachma fuelled by the Germans desire to let them go rather than Athens pushing on the domino effect which may have abated this whole situation.